A permanent wealth divide was created by the run-up of wealth during the Covid period, say economists. File photo. Photo: 123rf
经济学家说，在新冠疫情期间，财富的增加造成了永久性的财富鸿沟。档案照片。照片：123rf
New Zealand’s 2021 surge in wealth has created a “generational divide” of the sort that may never be seen again, economists say.
【澳纽网编译】经济学家表示，新西兰2021年的财富激增造成了一种可能永远不会再见的“代沟”。
Stats NZ data last week showed New Zealand households were marginally better off in the first three months of this year.
新西兰统计局上周的数据显示，今年前三个月新西兰家庭的状况略有改善。
It said total household assets increased $10.3 billion or 0.4 percent in the March quarter. Net worth – which is the value of assets minus liabilities such as debt – rose 0.3 percent or $7.8b, to $2.34 trillion.
统计局表示，3月季度家庭总资产增加了103亿纽币，增幅为0.4%。净资产——即资产价值减去负债——上升了0.3%或78亿纽币，达到了2.34万亿纽币。
Stats NZ said pension assets, such as KiwiSaver, helped push up the increase.
新西兰统计局表示，KiwiSaver等养老金资产帮助推高了这一增长。
The total value of insurance and pension assets of households rose $8.3b or 5.5 percent compared to December 2023, following a $6.2b increase the previous quarter.
与2023年12月相比，家庭的保险和养老金资产总价值增加了83亿纽币，增幅为5.5%，此前一个季度增加了62亿纽币。
Independent economist Shamubeel Eaqub said there had been a permanent wealth divide created by the run-up of wealth during the Covid period. Household wealth rose from $1.82 trillion in June 2020 to $2.49 trillion in December 2021.
独立经济学家沙穆贝尔·埃库布（Shamubeel Eaqub）表示，在新冠疫情期间，财富的增加造成了永久性的财富鸿沟。家庭财富从2020年6月的1.82万亿纽币增加到2021年12月的2.49万亿纽币。
“That’s where the landed gentry comes in – those who have it have it and their children benefit. But if you’re locked out it becomes a generational lockout.”
“这就是地主绅士的用武之地——那些拥有财富的人及其子女将受益。但如果你被拒之门外，这种局面就会世代相传。”
ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said it was unlikely there would be such a sharp increase in wealth for households again, as was seen in 2021. But a repeat would require a significant economic shock, he said.
澳新银行高级经济学家迈尔斯·沃克曼（Miles Workman）表示，家庭财富不太可能再次出现如2021年那样的急剧增长。但他说，要想重现那种情况，需要重大经济冲击。
“Be careful what you wish for…. the peak was very much consistent with a market that was out of balance and not sustainable.”
“小心你所期望的……当时的巅峰非常符合一个失衡且不可持续的市场。”
The bulk of New Zealanders’ household wealth tends to come from house prices and Workman said there was limited scope for them to drive sustained increases in the near-term.
新西兰人的大部分家庭财富往往来自房价，沃克曼表示，他们在短期内推动房价持续增长的空间有限。
Whether the strength in equity markets persisted to improve KiwiSaver balances was yet to be seen. “Particularly in the US it’s been driven by tech stocks recently but we are on the verge of some potentially game-changing technologies so who’s to say whether those valuations are appropriate?”
股市的强势是否能持续改善KiwiSaver的余额还有待观察。“特别是在美国，最近股市的强势是由科技股推动的，但我们正处于一些可能改变游戏规则的技术的边缘，所以谁能说这些估值是否合适？”
The same data showed household net disposable income increased by 6.2 percent during the year, while household spending rose at a slower rate of 5.6 percent in current price terms.
同样的数据表明，家庭净可支配收入在一年内增长了6.2%，而家庭支出按现值计算的增速为5.6%。
Westpac said the average mortgage rate that households were paying had risen from 3.2 percent in 2021 to 6.3 percent.
西太平洋银行表示，家庭支付的平均抵押贷款利率已从2021年的3.2%上升到6.3%。
“That’s drained a lot of money out of households’ wallets. For example, if you have an average priced home with an 80 percent mortgage, that change would add around $290 a week to your mortgage bill.”
“这从家庭的钱包里掏出了很多钱。例如，如果你有一套均价房子，抵押贷款率为80%，那么这种变化将使你的抵押贷款账单每周增加约290纽币。”
ASB senior economist Mark Smith said he expected wealth accumulation at a more sedate pace from here, particularly with regards to house prices.
ASB高级经济学家马克·史密斯（Mark Smith）表示，他预计从现在开始，财富积累将以更平稳的速度增长，特别是在房价方面。
“Over a period of time, the value of an asset should grow in line with its income, essentially.”
“从长远来看，资产的价值基本上应该与其收入增长一致。”
He said some people who had seen the value of their properties fall would see a silver lining in the performance of their KiwiSaver balances, but that effect also would not be evenly spread.
他说，一些看到自己房产价值下跌的人会在他们的KiwiSaver余额的表现中看到一线希望，但这种影响也不会均匀分布。
“With Covid, in 2020 there was a huge transfer of income from the government sector to firms and households [through the wage subsidy and other supports] that really helped households out, what we’ve seen now is various challenges in the household sector, things like the cost of living, eroding the incomes of households.
“在新冠疫情期间，通过工资补贴和其他支持，政府部门将大量收入转移给企业和家庭，这确实帮助了家庭。我们现在看到的是家庭部门面临的各种挑战，如生活成本上升，侵蚀家庭收入。”
“Households in general built up considerable amounts of savings in the early Covid years, the lockdown period… there was a huge transfer of income from government to them but then the past couple of years, households have been steadily running down savings. Now they’re running into spending more than they are earning.”
“在疫情初期，封锁期间，家庭普遍积累了大量储蓄……政府向他们转移了大量收入，但在过去几年里，家庭一直在稳步消耗储蓄。现在，他们的支出超过了收入。”
Households had $243.7b in deposits with registered banks and almost $300b in total loans of which $268b is home loans.
家庭在注册银行有2437亿纽币的存款，总贷款近3000亿纽币，其中2680亿纽币是住房贷款。
来源：RNZ
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