新西兰商业信心上升 – ANZ - 澳纽网

题图：澳新银行的一项调查显示，企业对来年的贸易更加充满希望。照片：RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

【澳纽网】援引RNZ报道，商业信心首次在两年多的时间里出现好转，但通胀预期下降可能不足以阻止今年央行再次加息。

ANZ的月度调查显示，净2%的受访者对未来一年的整体经济前景表示信心，而8月份的数字为负4%。

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这是自2021年5月以来的最高水平，而企业对自己的交易前景的乐观情绪保持在净11%。

ANZ首席经济学家Sharon Zollner称该调查是一个“复杂的情况”，出口、投资、建筑和就业意向疲软，但通胀预期略微下降，低于5%。

“还有很长的路要走，但事情继续朝着正确的方向缓慢发展。”

“然而，定价意图是调查中最好的通胀指标之一，但该月份走向错误，汇率和油价都有可能中断或停止下行进展。”

“However, pricing intentions, one of the best inflation indicators in the survey, went the wrong way in the month, and both the exchange rate and oil prices have the potential to interrupt or halt downward progress.”

Zollner表示整体经济前景不明朗，自年初以来看到的活动指标反弹似乎正在失去动力，但工资和价格预期仍然较高。

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“从宏观角度看，通胀压力正在逐渐减弱，但不是迅速且不是呈直线下降，关于是否足够快地使核心通胀压力及时下降的问题还有待定论。”

她坚持了ANZ的观点，认为还会有更多的加息。

“我们仍然预计，新西兰储备银行将得出结论，它还有更多工作要做，以确保通胀正在回到目标区间，预计11月将加息25个基点。”

来源：RNZ

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