Modelling suggests 7000 deaths in a year even with 75 per cent of country jabbed
模型显示，即使 国家达到75% 的疫苗接种率，一年也有 7000 人死亡
New modelling prepared for the Government by Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand could see up to 7000 Covid-19 deaths a year even with a high proportion of the population jabbed.
The modelling from Te Punaha Matatini suggests that if 80 per cent of the 5+ population was fully vaccinated – around 75 per cent of the entire country – Covid-19 would still cause a serious death toll without other restrictions.
Te Punaha Matatini 的模型表明，如果 5 岁以上人口中有 80% 接种了疫苗——约占全国的 75%——没有其他限制的话，Covid-19 仍然会造成严重的死亡人数，。
Hendy projects it would cause 60,000 hospitalisations and 7000 deaths over a one-year period.
Hendy 预计它将在一年内导致 60,000 人住院和 7000 人死亡。
If 90 per cent of the 5+ population was reached however – around 85 per cent of the full population – then deaths would drop to around 50 over a year.
Mount Wellington has been added to the list of focus suburbs. There’s a new pop up testing site in the region.
惠灵顿山已被列入重点郊区名单。 该地区有一个新的随到随测站点。
10 per cent of the Clover Park population have been tested in the last two days. 60 per cent of the population in Clover Park have had at least one vaccination.
过去两天，Clover Park 人口的 10% 接受了检测。 Clover Park 60% 的人口至少接种过一次疫苗。
Generally, people travelling out of level 3 regularly for permitted activities need a test within the last 7 days. The information on the requirements for this travel will be updated today.
THere are greater restrictions at the level 3 boundary this time, compared to last time.
与上次相比，这次的三级边界有更大的限制。
In upper Hauraki, every teacher and student at the affected school has been tested. All but one have returned negative results, one is still outstanding.
在上豪拉基，受影响学校的每位教师和学生都接受了测试。 除了一个都返回了阴性结果，一个仍然很出色。
The only positive test in this area is from the single household.
该地区唯一的阳性测试结果来自单身家庭。
The Section 70 order will be lifted for people outside of upper Hauraki who were covered by the restrictions.
对于受到限制的上豪拉基以外的人，第 70 条的命令将被取消。
Ardern said they’ve always used the best health and modelling advice to make decisions.
Ardern 说他们一直使用最好的健康和建模建议来做出决定。
As part of their preparation for the future, they’ve asked modellers to put together work they can share publicly. This was received yesterday, it hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed.
If 80 per cent of the 5+ population was fully vaccinated – around 75 per cent of the entire country – Covid-19 would still cause a serious death toll without other restrictions.
Hendy said there’s no “magic threshold” for vaccination coverage, but the higher coverage the fewer restrictions we’ll need in coming years.
亨迪说，疫苗接种覆盖率没有“神奇的门槛”，但覆盖率越高，未来几年我们需要的限制就越少。
“We need every community to be well covered by vaccination. For life to go back to normal, we really can’t leave anyone behind,” Hendy said.
“我们需要每个社区都得到很好的疫苗接种。为了让生活恢复正常，我们真的不能让任何人掉队，”亨迪说。
Back to Ardern.
回到阿登。
She said vaccinations matter the most and are a cause for hope.
她说疫苗接种最重要，是希望的所在。
At the beginning of Covid-19, lockdowns were used because no-one could risk being exposed to the virus. THey had to isolate everyone. Vaccines turn that model on its head, so everyone with Covid would be isolated as others have the protection of the vaccine.
If we just relied on them, it could still lead to outbreaks and hospitalisations.
如果我们只是依赖它们，它仍然可能导致爆发和住院。
Delta is more transmissible and it’s “very good” at finding unvaccinated people. This could overwhelm the health system.
Delta 的传染性更强，它在寻找未接种疫苗的人方面“非常好”。 这可能会使卫生系统不堪重负。
Kids can’t be vaccinated so it will reach them. This has already happened in this outbreak.
儿童不能接种疫苗，因此疫苗会传染给他们。 这在这次疫情中已经发生了。
If our health systems are overwhelmed, we’ll all suffer.
如果我们的卫生系统不堪重负，我们都会受苦。
The way we have to use all available measures comes down to how many people are vaccinated.
我们必须使用所有可用措施的方式归结为有多少人接种了疫苗。
Very high levels means level 4 can be taken out of the tool box and set aside.
非常高的接种率意味着4级封锁 可以从工具箱中取出并放在一边。
But it all comes down to vaccination. Ardern said the more New Zealanders who get vaccinated, the more opportunities open up and the more freedoms we gain.
但这一切都归结为疫苗接种。 阿德恩说，接种疫苗的新西兰人越多，机会就越多，我们获得的自由也就越多。
We don’t have to live with Covid. We can stick with our plan of “zero tolerance” – we can vaccinate, isolate and control. There’s a reason for optimism, Ardern said.
A vaccination framework means good vaccine coverage. They want to aggressively isolate cases that arise, control the impact through sustainable health measures, catch cases at the border, and ensure the health system is prepared.
Over the last 18 months we’ve had more days without restrictions than almost any other country.
在过去的 18 个月里，我们不受限制的天数几乎比任何其他国家/地区都多。
We have the opportunity to be one of the most vaccinated countries in the world.
我们有机会成为世界上接种疫苗最多的国家之一。
She said we need to work together to see all communities get vaccination rates up. We don’t want to leave anyone behind, because it just doesn’t feel right.
她说我们需要共同努力，让所有社区都提高疫苗接种率。 我们不想让任何人落后，因为这感觉不对。
The supplies are there and the workforce is ready to go. She encouraged people to help friends and family get to vaccination sites.
物资已经到位，劳动力已准备就绪。 她鼓励人们帮助朋友和家人前往疫苗接种点。
“Get vaccinated, it’s the reason we should all feel hopeful,” were Ardern’s closing words.
“接种疫苗，这就是我们都应该感到充满希望的原因，”是 Ardern 的结束语。
Now to questions.
现在来提问。
Our vaccination rate goal is “high”, Ardern simply said.
我们的疫苗接种率目标是“高”的，Ardern 简单地说。
The more vaccinations, the fewer restrictions we need. This will protect young kids and babies who can’t be vaccinated.
接种的疫苗越多，我们需要的限制就越少。 这将保护无法接种疫苗的幼儿和婴儿。
Modelling also suggests the higher the better.
建模也表明越高越好。
Bloomfield has earmarked 90 per cent +. She said that’s what we should be aiming for.
Bloomfield 已定出 90% 以上。 她说这就是我们应该追求的目标。
Today’s modelling shows what the future could look like with high vaccination rates.
今天的模型显示了高疫苗接种率的未来。
High vaccination rates will be the “golden ticket” for New Zealand, Ardern said.
阿德恩说，高疫苗接种率将成为新西兰的“金票”。
Vaccines can help reduce the restrictive measures we’ve had in place previously.
疫苗可以帮助减少我们之前采取的限制措施。
The decision on vaccinations for 5-11s, will be based on advice from experts. They will make an assessment of the data. It will be a health decision.
5-11 岁的疫苗接种决定将基于专家的建议。 他们将对数据进行评估。 这将是一个健康决定。
Bloomfield said the data is promising.
布卢姆菲尔德说，数据很有希望。
They’re also watching the data on vaccinations for under 5s.
他们也在关注 5 岁以下儿童接种疫苗的数据。
There have been 13 babies in this outbreak, and over 200 children under the age of 12.
此次疫情共有13名婴儿，200多名12岁以下的儿童的病例。
Hendy said they use a variety of models, and thought it perfectly valid to follow what’s happening overseas, but every country is different.
Hendy 说他们使用各种模型，并认为跟踪海外发生的事情是完全正确的，但每个国家都不同。
He said we’re looking at the long term and they’ll have to watch what happens in countries like Singapore and Denmark over the long term. It would be “really dangerous” to follow certain countries just in the short term.
Employers will be having their own conversations with staff around vaccine mandates.
雇主将就疫苗规定与员工进行自己的对话。
Vaccine certificates are a live debate for the Government at the moment.
目前，政府正在进行疫苗证书的一场辩论。
90 per cent would mean less reliance on lockdowns. That’s a “big carrot” for many people in New Zealand, Hendy said.
90% 意味着减少对封锁的依赖。 Hendy 说，这对新西兰的许多人来说是一个“大胡萝卜”。
While he can’t speak for the Government, he thought that might remain on the table if there were thousands of deaths.
虽然他不能代表政府发言，但他认为如果有数千人死亡，这可能会留在谈判桌上。
So put to put it simply – 90 per cent means lockdowns aren’t likely.
简而言之——90% 意味着不太可能出现封锁。
The “traditional tools” are being used in Auckland at the moment because they don’t have high vaccination rates, Ardern said.
Ardern 说，目前奥克兰正在使用“传统工具”，因为疫苗接种率不高。
But in future, if vaccination rates are high enough, we can move away from the lockdown tool.
但在未来，如果疫苗接种率足够高，我们可以摆脱封锁工具。
Baseline restrictions, like level 2, could also be used to help manage and control Covid in the community in future. Restrictions at the border, in both directions, could also be used.
If there’s a pocket of unvaccinated people, Delta will find it and there could be an outbreak.
如果有一小部分未接种疫苗的人，Delta会找到它，并且可能会爆发。
That’s why it’s important we have good vaccination rates across cities, ages and ethnicities.
这就是为什么我们在不同城市、年龄和种族之间拥有良好的疫苗接种率很重要。
Models are “imperfect beasts”, Ardern said. They provide principles for decisions to be based on.
阿德恩说，模型是“不完美的野兽”。 它们为决策提供了原则。
The principles are clear – vaccination matters.
原则很明确——疫苗接种很重要。
Ardern won’t accept a situation where we “shrug our shoulders” and accept there’ll be Covid-related deaths.
Ardern 不会接受我们“耸耸肩”并接受与 Covid 相关的死亡的情况。
If there’s an outbreak, they contact trace, isolate and test to try to stamp it out. Vaccines help with this job.
如果爆发，他们会联系追踪、隔离和测试，以试图将其消灭。 疫苗有助于这项工作。
Ardern said they will continue to “act aggressively” with Covid.
Ardern 表示，他们将继续对 Covid 采取“积极行动”。
If we can maintain a low level of cases, the contact tracing system could operate efficiently, provided it has been adapted.
如果我们能保持低水平的病例，接触者追踪系统就可以有效运行，前提是它已经过调整。
On ventilation, they’re looking at basic principles that can be shared to help make spaces as safe as possible.
在通风方面，他们正在研究可以共享的基本原则，以帮助使空间尽可能安全。
We can learn from other countries in this space. It will help workplaces and venues.
我们可以在这个领域向其他国家学习。 它将有助于工作场地和场所。
The vaccination rate is making a difference in this outbreak, Hendy said.
亨迪说，疫苗接种率在这次疫情中产生了影响。
Every country has experienced a point where they reach a certain rate and then it gets harder to grow.
每个国家都经历过接种率达到一定后，然后增长变得更加困难。
Auckland could reach 90 per cent in a couple of weeks or a month, Ardern said.
Ardern 说，奥克兰可能会在几周或一个月内达到 90%。
The Government needs to get creative to encourage vaccinations.
政府需要发挥创造力来鼓励接种疫苗。
Ardern said the goal is to get people vaccinated and we should be allowing people to get out and do that work.
Ardern 说，目标是让人们接种疫苗，我们应该允许人们出去从事这项工作。
They want to move away from lockdowns in the future. They were used previously because there wasn’t individual armour, there is now in the form of vaccines.
他们希望在未来摆脱封锁。 以前使用它们是因为没有单独的盔甲，现在以疫苗的形式出现。
Ardern sees the numbers in the modelling as a cause for hope. It shows we can have a model that couples vaccinations with public health measures to prevent high death rates and hospitalisations.
Ardern reminded everyone she got modelling “much much worse” than this at the beginning of the pandemic.
Ardern 提醒所有人，在大流行开始时，她获得的模型“比这要糟糕得多”。
Ardern said some places that used vaccine certificates earlier generated higher vaccination uptakes and then eventually moved away from them. So they could be used as short term tools.
Ultimately, they want people to get vaccinated because they’ve chosen to protect themselves and their community. That will be the main motivation used by the Government.
最终，他们希望人们接种疫苗，因为他们选择保护自己和社区。 这将是政府使用的主要动机。
Someone in Middlemore hospital was a contact of a case and was being monitored separately. Two visitors came, one was a contact of a case and should’ve been isolating. They have since tested negative.
Four staff and a few security guards at Middlemore Hospital have been stood down.
米德尔莫尔医院的四名工作人员和几名保安人员已被停职。
That’s it for today’s press conference.
以上就是今天的新闻发布会的内容。
（未完待续， 翻译中。。。）
（新闻发布会已结束。借助谷歌翻译，不顺之处请谅）
Almost 90 per cent more cars on Auckland roads on first day of level 3
三级警戒第一天，奥克兰道路上的汽车增加了近 90%
Auckland’s first day in alert level 3 saw 20,000 more cars on the road – an increase of almost 90 per cent.
奥克兰进入 3 级警报的第一天，道路上的汽车增加了 20,000 辆——增加了近 90%。
Contactless takeaways and retail can open under level 3 restrictions and construction can also resume alongside already-open essential services.
非接触式外卖和零售可以在 3 级限制下开放，建筑业也可以与已经开放的基本服务一起恢复。
Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) said the Auckland network “has been observed to be busier, generally with queueing at takeaway locations”.
Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) 表示，奥克兰的交通网络“被观察到更加繁忙，通常在外卖地点排队”。
Day one of alert level 3 saw an 88.6 per cent increase in light traffic and an 86.3 per cent increase in heavy traffic compared to the previous Wednesday when the city was in level 4.与上周三该市处于第 4 级时相比，第 3 级警报的第一天，轻交通量增加了 88.6%，交通拥堵增加了 86.3%。
Delta variant ‘outcompetes’ new Mu variant of interest, WHO says
世卫组织称，Delta 变体“胜过”感兴趣的新 Mu 变体
The Delta variant is “by far” the most transmissible variant in the world, outcompeting the newer Mu variant of interest, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
根据世界卫生组织 (WHO) 的说法，Delta 变体是“迄今为止”世界上最易传播的变体，在竞争中胜过了感兴趣的新 Mu 变体。
