File photo. Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a lowering of the threshold for a nuclear strike. Photo: ALEXANDER KAZAKOV / AFP
题图：档案照片。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）已批准降低核打击的门槛。摄影：ALEXANDER KAZAKOV / AFP
Russian President Vladimir Putin has lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks, as Moscow says Ukraine struck deep inside Russia with US-made ATACMS missiles.
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）降低了核打击的门槛，以应对更广泛的常规攻击，因为莫斯科表示，乌克兰使用美国制造的 ATACMS 导弹对俄罗斯内部深处进行了打击。
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Putin approved the change days after two US officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday that US President Joe Biden’s administration allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia.
在两名美国官员和一名熟悉该决定的消息人士周日表示，美国总统乔·拜登政府允许乌克兰使用美国制造的武器深入俄罗斯后几天，普京批准了这一变化。
Russia had been warning the West for months that if Washington allowed Ukraine to fire US, British and French missiles deep into Russia, Moscow would consider those NATO members to be directly involved in the war in Ukraine.
几个月来，俄罗斯一直在警告西方，如果华盛顿允许乌克兰向俄罗斯深处发射美国、英国和法国的导弹，莫斯科会认为这些北约成员国直接参与了乌克兰战争。
The updated Russian nuclear doctrine, establishing a framework for conditions under which Putin could order a strike from the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal, was approved by him on Tuesday, according to a published decree.
根据公布的一项法令，普京于周二批准了更新后的俄罗斯核理论，该理论为普京下令动用世界上最大的核武库实施打击的条件确立了框架。
Analysts said the biggest change was that Russia could consider a nuclear strike in response to a conventional attack on Russia or its ally Belarus that “created a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) their territorial integrity”.
分析人士说，最大的变化是，如果俄罗斯或其盟国白俄罗斯受到常规攻击，“对其主权和（或）领土完整造成严重威胁”，俄罗斯可以考虑进行核打击。
“The big picture is that Russia is lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a possible conventional attack,” said Alexander Graef, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg.
“从大局来看，俄罗斯正在降低核打击的门槛，以应对可能的常规攻击，”汉堡大学和平研究与安全政策研究所（Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg）高级研究员亚历山大·格雷夫（Alexander Graef）说。
The previous doctrine, contained in a 2020 decree, said Russia may use nuclear weapons in case of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatened the existence of the state.
以前的理论载于 2020 年的一项法令中，其中规定俄罗斯可以在敌人发动核攻击或常规攻击威胁到国家生存的情况下使用核武器。
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The US National Security Council said it had not seen any reason to adjust the US nuclear posture. Together, Russia and the US control 88 percent of the world’s nuclear warheads.
美国国家安全委员会表示，它没有看到任何理由调整美国的核态势。俄罗斯和美国共同控制着世界上 88% 的核弹头。
Putin is the primary decision-maker on the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
普京是使用俄罗斯核武库的主要决策者。
Lower threshold
The doctrine said any attack by a non-nuclear power supported by a nuclear power would be considered a joint attack, and that any attack by one member of a military bloc would be considered an attack by the entire alliance, it said.
该理论称，一个无核国家在一个核国家支持下发动的任何攻击都将被视为联合攻击，一个军事集团的一个成员发动的任何攻击都将被视为整个联盟的攻击。
Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine had struck Russia’s Bryansk region with six missiles, and that air defence systems intercepted five and damaged one.
俄罗斯国防部表示，乌克兰用 6 枚导弹袭击了俄罗斯的布良斯克地区，防空系统拦截了 5 枚导弹，损坏了 1 枚导弹。
“We will be taking this as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia and we will react accordingly,” Putin’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said in English, adding that US personnel and data must have been used in the ATACMS attack on Russia.
普京的外交部长谢尔盖-拉夫罗夫用英语说：“我们将把这看作是西方对俄战争的一个质的新阶段，我们将作出相应的反应，”他还说，美国的人员和数据肯定被用于对俄罗斯的 ATACMS 攻击。
Lavrov said Russia would do everything to avoid nuclear war, and pointed out that it was the U.S. which used nuclear weapons against the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
拉夫罗夫表示，俄罗斯将尽一切努力避免核战争，并指出是美国在 1945 年对日本广岛和长崎城市使用核武器。
On the 1000th day of the Ukraine war, Russia also included a broader definition of the data that could be used to indicate Russia was under mass attack from aircraft, cruise missiles and unpiloted aircraft.
在乌克兰战争爆发的第 1000 天，俄罗斯还对可用于表明俄罗斯受到飞机、巡航导弹和非驾驶飞机大规模攻击的数据进行了更广泛的定义。
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The war is entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its final and most dangerous phase as Moscow’s forces advance at their fastest pace since the early weeks of the conflict and the West ponders how the war will end.
一些俄罗斯和西方官员表示，随着莫斯科军队以冲突最初几周以来最快的速度推进，而西方正在考虑如何结束战争，这场战争正在进入可能是其最后也是最危险的阶段。
Government bonds and the Japanese yen rallied, while stocks and the euro fell, as investors bought safe-haven assets after the publication of Russia’s doctrine. The Russian rouble fell past 100 per US dollar for the first time since October 2023.
政府债券和日元反弹，而股票和欧元下跌，因为投资者在俄罗斯的理论公布后买入了避险资产。俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率自 2023 年 10 月以来首次跌破 100。
Russian diplomats say the crisis is comparable to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when the two Cold War superpowers came closest to intentional nuclear war, and that the West is making a mistake if it thinks Russia will back down over Ukraine.
俄罗斯外交官表示，这场危机可与 1962 年的古巴导弹危机相提并论，当时两个冷战超级大国最接近蓄意发动核战争，如果西方认为俄罗斯会在乌克兰问题上让步，那就大错特错了。
The Kremlin said Russia considered nuclear weapons a means of deterrence and that the updated text was intended to make clear to potential enemies the inevitability of retaliation should they attack Russia.
克里姆林宫表示，俄罗斯将核武器视为一种威慑手段，更新后的文本旨在向潜在敌人表明，如果他们攻击俄罗斯，必然会遭到报复。
“Now the danger of a direct armed clash between nuclear powers cannot be underestimated, what is happening has no analogues in the past, we are moving through unexplored military and political territory,” said Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister overseeing arms control and US relations.
“现在，核大国之间发生直接武装冲突的危险不容小觑，正在发生的事情在过去没有类似之处，我们正在穿越未开发的军事和政治领域，”俄罗斯负责军备控制和美国关系的副外长谢尔盖·里亚布科夫（Sergei Ryabkov）说。
The main changes to the nuclear doctrine were flagged by Putin in September.
普京在 9 月标记了对核理论的主要变化。
Asked whether publication of the decree was linked to Washington’s decision on allowing Ukraine to fire U.S. missiles deep into Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the doctrine had been published in a “timely manner”.
当被问及该法令的发布是否与华盛顿允许乌克兰向俄罗斯深处发射美国导弹的决定有关时，克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫（Dmitry Peskov）表示，该理论的发布是“及时的”。
“Nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies,” Peskov said.
佩斯科夫说：“核威慑旨在确保潜在对手明白，在对俄罗斯联邦和/或其盟友的侵略的情况下，报复是不可避免的。
来源： Reuters
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