Over the past 10 years, the average new first-home mortgage has increased from about NZ$300,000 to more than NZ$550,000, Reserve Bank data shows.
【澳纽网编译】储备银行数据显示，过去十年中，首次购房平均抵押贷款额从约30万纽币增加到超过55万纽币。
On a mortgage rate of 5.99 percent, that is NZ$1520 a fortnight over 30 years, compared to NZ$829 on 2014’s numbers.
根据5.99%的抵押贷款利率计算，30年期限的每两周还款金额从2014年的829纽币升至1520纽币。
That increased debt means recent buyers are likely to be carrying much higher debt servicing costs into the future, even as home loan interest rates fall.
这种债务增长意味着，尽管房贷利率下降，近期购房者未来可能仍需面对更高的偿债压力。
At the same time, the average household income has increased from just over NZ$90,000 to about NZ$130,000.
与此同时，家庭平均收入从略高于9万纽币增加至约13万纽币。
New loans to other owner-occupiers increased from less than NZ$140,000 on average in 2014 to NZ$310,740.
2014年，其他自住业主的平均新贷款额不到14万纽币，如今已增至31万纽币。
Data from the Finance and Mortgage Advisors Association of New Zealand estimates that 59 percent of New Zealanders are paying more than 30 percent of their household income in home loan costs.
新西兰金融与抵押贷款顾问协会的数据显示，59%的新西兰人在住房贷款上的支出超过了家庭收入的30%。
Nearly a quarter spend more than half their income.
近四分之一的人在住房贷款上支出了收入的一半以上。
Of those under stress, 27 percent told the association’s research they were mortgage prisoners because they could not refinance due to the servicing requirements of lenders or other financial circumstances.
在感受到压力的人群中，27%的人表示，他们因贷方的服务要求或其他财务状况无法再融资，成为了所谓的“抵押贷款囚徒”。
Centrix data showed mortgage arrears rose slightly in September, with 21,200 home loans past due, marking a 13 percent year-on-year increase.
根据Centrix的数据，9月抵押贷款拖欠率略有上升，共有21,200笔住房贷款逾期，同比增长13%。
Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said a higher level of mortgage stress, or repayments as a percentage of income, was more common now.
Infometrics首席预测师加雷斯·基尔南（Gareth Kiernan）表示，目前更高水平的抵押贷款压力（即还款占收入的比例）变得更加普遍。
“But that doesn’t mean we should necessarily accept it or normalise it.”
“但这并不意味着我们应该接受这一状况，或将其视为常态。”
“Otherwise we run the risk of accepting that housing is permanently unaffordable in this country when, in reality, if anyone had been presented with the current house price versus income relativity 25 years ago, they would have said it was ridiculous and demanded that something be done to prevent that outcome occurring.”
“否则，我们可能会默认住房在这个国家永远难以负担。然而，实际上，如果25年前有人看到现在的房价和收入比例，他们会觉得荒谬，并要求采取措施避免这种情况。”
He said the way housing cycles worked meant unaffordable conditions were likely to persist for longer than instances of overly cheap housing.
基尔南指出，由于住房周期的特点，房价过高的状况往往持续时间更长。
“Because it is easier for house prices to rise rather than fall. So although we saw a reduction of 15 percent in house prices during 2022 and 2023, they are still substantially higher than they were pre-Covid. Unless something significant occurs to drive house prices substantially lower again, the return of the house-price-to-income ratio towards a more acceptable level has to be primarily driven by higher incomes – which is a slow and drawn out process, particularly when the labour market is weakening and limiting income growth.”
“房价上涨比下跌容易得多。因此，尽管2022年至2023年房价下降了15%，但仍远高于疫情前水平。除非有重大事件使房价大幅下跌，否则房价与收入的比例恢复到更合理的水平主要依赖于收入提高。而这通常是一个缓慢而漫长的过程，特别是在劳动力市场疲软、收入增长受限的情况下。”
He said while the traditional benchmark of “affordability” of 30 percent of income on repayments might feel too low given how difficult it was for modern buyers to achieve that, it was a reasonable long-term target.
基尔南补充道，尽管现代购房者很难实现“还款不超过收入30%”这一传统负担能力基准，但这一目标在长期来看仍然合理。
“And provides additional grounds for the government to try and make significant progress in improving the supply of land and housing and bringing down house prices, relative to incomes, over the medium term.”
“同时，这也为政府提供了更多理由，在中期内通过改善土地和住房供应、降低房价相对收入的比例方面取得实质性进展。”
Kelvin Davidson, chief property economist at CoreLogic, said housing affordability measures looked worse as house prices had risen in relation to incomes. Affordability had become more stretched over the past seven or eight years, he said.
CoreLogic首席房地产经济学家凯尔文·戴维森（Kelvin Davidson）指出，由于房价相对收入上涨，住房负担能力指标恶化。在过去七八年里，这种情况更加严重。
“Mortgage servicing as a share of average income is higher than it used to be. From that sense it’s definitely got harder but people keep finding a way.”
“抵押贷款还款占平均收入的比例比以前更高。从这一点来看，买房确实更难了，但人们总能找到办法。”
But the share of purchases going to first-home buyers remains at record levels.
尽管如此，首次购房者的购买比例仍处于历史高位。
Davidson said people were helped by their more significant KiwiSaver balances and banks offering some low-deposit loans within the loan-to-value restrictions.
戴维森表示，较高的KiwiSaver储蓄余额以及银行在贷款价值比限制内提供的低首付贷款，为购房者提供了支持。
He said people who bought a house recently, particularly at the peak of the market, would face higher debt servicing costs for longer.
他指出，那些在市场高峰期购房的人将面临更长时间的高偿债压力。
But most borrowers had much smaller loans and had been helped over time by their incomes increasing as the amount they owed reduced.
但大多数借款人的贷款额较小，随着时间推移，收入增长与欠款减少共同缓解了他们的偿债负担。
来源：RNZ
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