（双语）在下一次火山喷发中，数十万北岛的房屋可能被火山灰覆盖

Hundreds of thousands of North Island homes could be covered in ash after a volcanic eruption – and assessing the damage could take months, the Natural Hazards Commission says.
【澳纽网编译】自然灾害委员会表示，火山喷发后，北岛数十万栋房屋可能被灰烬覆盖，评估损失可能需要数月时间。

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It has funded GNS to design a model that will enable authorities to quickly identify in real time where the ash is falling, and how much there is, to help emergency managers respond.
它资助 GNS 设计了一个模型，使当局能够快速实时识别灰烬落下的位置和数量，以帮助应急管理人员做出响应。

Mount Ruapehu last erupted in 1995 and 1996.
鲁阿佩胡火山上一次喷发是在 1995 年和 1996 年。

GNS natural hazard and risk scientist Dr Josh Hayes, who is helping to create the model, said while those eruptions were significant, there was not much damage – they were more of a nuisance.
GNS 自然灾害和风险科学家 Josh Hayes 博士正在帮助创建该模型，他表示，虽然这些喷发很严重，但破坏不大——它们更令人讨厌。

But Ruapehu would erupt again, he said.
但他说，鲁阿佩胡火山会再次喷发。

“Let’s … think the next 50 years, I’d say an eruption of some size at Ruapehu is almost certain to occur within that 50-year time period.
“让我们……想想未来 50 年，我认为鲁阿佩胡几乎肯定会在这 50 年的时间里发生某种规模的喷发。

“What’s really uncertain is how big it would be, and what areas would get affected.”
“真正不确定的是它会有多大，以及哪些区域会受到影响。”

Because the country had never seen major ashfall, researchers did not have much data to forecast potential impacts – relying instead on overseas findings, Hayes said.
海耶斯说，由于该国从未发生过大规模的火山灰降落，研究人员没有太多数据来预测潜在影响，而是依靠海外的调查结果。

But the GNS model would quickly identify how widespread the ash fall would be during an eruption, to inform emergency response teams about which homes and other buildings may be affected.
但 GNS 模型将快速确定火山喷发期间火山灰落下的范围，以告知应急响应团队哪些房屋和其他建筑物可能会受到影响。

“We’d use ashfall forecasts that come through Geonet, and then we would tie that in with some building data that we have, around where buildings are located, and with the vulnerability models, which would then give us an indication of what the likelihood is of different buildings suffering different types of damage. “
“我们会使用来自 Geonet 的火山灰降雪预测，然后将其与我们拥有的一些建筑数据、建筑物所在位置和脆弱性模型联系起来，然后告诉我们不同建筑物遭受不同类型损坏的可能性有多大。”

The tool would be constantly adjusted with fresh data, which was critical if a volcano continued erupting, he said.
他说，该工具将根据新数据不断调整，如果火山继续喷发，这一点至关重要。

It was unlikely that damage to buildings would be too major – ash could accumulate in gutters which could collapse, for example.
对建筑物的损坏不太可能太严重——例如，灰烬可能会积聚在排水沟中，从而可能倒塌。

That was partially because national parks surrounded most of the country’s volcanoes, Hayes said.
海耶斯说，部分原因是国家公园包含了该国的大部分火山。

“This sort of acts as a bit of a natural buffer.
“这有点像一个天然的缓冲。

“Because we don’t have a lot of development, a lot of buildings, located near volcanoes, it means that widespread building collapse, like the really significant damage, is probably very rare.”
“因为我们没有很多开发项目，很多建筑物都位于火山附近，这意味着大面积的建筑物倒塌，就像真正重大的破坏一样，可能非常罕见。”

The work is funded by the Natural Hazards Commission. Its head of research Dr Natalie Balfour said it was one of a handful of projects helping forecast the impacts of volcanic hazards, with others looking at volcanic gases and lava flows.
这项工作由自然灾害委员会资助。其研究主管 Natalie Balfour 博士表示，这是帮助预测火山灾害影响的少数几个项目之一，其他项目则关注火山气体和熔岩流。

“All of our investment and research at the Natural Hazards Commission is trying to help make Aotearoa New Zealand more resilient, so how can we help better prepare people by understanding what the impacts of the natural hazards might be on them and the properties.”
“我们在自然灾害委员会的所有投资和研究都是为了帮助提高新西兰的弹性，那么我们如何通过了解自然灾害可能对人们和财产产生的影响来帮助人们更好地做好准备。”

The ash fall model would help communities recover and get back on their feet more quickly, she said.
她说，落灰模型将帮助社区更快地恢复和恢复。

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Ruapehu mayor Weston Kirton said he remembered the 1996 eruption well – he was the mayor back then, too.
鲁阿佩胡市长韦斯顿·柯顿 （Weston Kirton） 说，他对 1996 年的火山喷发记忆犹新——他当时也是市长。

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“I was actually there the morning it happened, on 17 June 1996, it happened to be my birthday,” he said.
“实际上，事情发生的那天早上，也就是 1996 年 6 月 17 日，我就在那儿，那天恰好是我的生日，”他说。

Kirton was up on the mountain with his daughter, who was training to work on the ski field.
Kirton 和他的女儿一起在山上，女儿正在接受滑雪场工作的训练。

“The mountain erupted, so I was right on the job,” he said.
“山喷发了，所以我就在工作上，”他说。

While scientists considered the ash fall moderate, Kirton said it caused havoc – closing ski fields and airports as far away as Auckland, ruining car filters, iron roofs, and the local economy, and creating a big clean-up job.
虽然科学家们认为火山灰落下适中，但 Kirton 表示，它造成了严重破坏——关闭了滑雪场及远至奥克兰机场，破坏了汽车过滤器、铁屋顶和当地经济，并创造了大量的清理工作。

“Everyone was evacuated from the area, but it was such a horrific experience to be there, and witnessing it was just nerve-wracking.
“每个人都从该地区撤离了，但在那里是一次如此可怕的经历，目睹这一切真是令人伤脑筋。

“Of course everything unfolded from there … emergency services came, road closures, and the dust and ash was all round the country.”
“当然，一切都从那里开始……紧急服务来了，道路封闭了，灰尘和灰烬遍布全国。

The Ruapehu district was always on high alert for volcanic activity, and anything to help plan and respond quickly – like the ash fall model – would be gratefully received, he said.
他说，鲁阿佩胡地区一直对火山活动保持高度警惕，任何有助于计划和快速响应的事情——比如火山灰坠落模型——都会受到感激。

The model is due to be ready by the end of 2025.
该模型将于 2025 年底准备就绪。

来源：RNZ

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