Photo: Stats NZ 照片：新西兰统计局
Analysis – The first data from the 2023 census will be released on 29 May – and not before time. We will see how successful – or not – the census exercise was in achieving participation and coverage.
【澳纽网编译】分析 – 2023 年人口普查的第一批数据将于 5 月 29 日发布——而不是在此之前。我们将看到人口普查工作在实现参与和覆盖方面有多成功——或失败。
It is no secret past censuses have faced real challenges. We would not want to see a repeat of the poor return rate and low Māori participation that affected the previous census in 2018.
过去的人口普查面临着真正的挑战，这已经不是什么秘密了。我们不希望看到影响2018年上一次人口普查的低回返率和低毛利人参与率的重演。
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Stats NZ has said this latest five-yearly census has counted 99 percent of the population. But this figure is a combination of those who filled out the census forms (about 4.5 million) and others counted from existing government data (about half a million).
新西兰统计局表示，最新的五年一次的人口普查已经统计了99%的人口。但这个数字是填写人口普查表的人（约450万）和从现有政府数据中计算的其他人（约五十万）的组合。
We can also cast forward by looking at the 12 months since the 2023 census was taken. In the year to March 2024, the key indicators are that the New Zealand population has changed significantly from where we were in March 2023.
我们还可以通过查看自 2023 年人口普查以来的 12 个月来预测。在截至 2024 年 3 月的一年中，关键指标是新西兰人口与 2023 年 3 月相比发生了重大变化。
Fertility continues to decline
生育率继续下降
In March 2023, the total fertility rate (births per woman) was 1.65 – well below the rate required for population replacement. In March 2024, the rate had dropped again to 1.52, a not inconsiderable decline in a single year.
2023 年 3 月，总生育率（每名妇女的生育数）为 1.65，远低于人口更替所需的比率。2024 年 3 月，该比率再次降至 1.52，在一年内下降了不少。
Some forecasts had assumed New Zealand might stabilise at around the 1.6 rate. But the latest data show a steady downward trend. Internationally, and in New Zealand, the higher educational credentials of Millennial and Gen Z women, combined with their participation in the paid workforce, are driving this trend.
一些预测认为新西兰可能会稳定在1.6左右。但最新数据显示，呈稳步下降趋势。在国际上和新西兰，千禧一代和Z世代（Z世代是指1995年至2010年之间出生的人）女性的高等教育证书，加上她们参与有偿劳动力，正在推动这一趋势。
Additionally, the economic pressures facing those generations are having an effect. When it comes to decisions about having children, the cost of living, especially housing, and the increasing need for two incomes, are now much greater considerations.
此外，这几代人面临的经济压力也产生了影响。当谈到生孩子的决定时，生活成本，尤其是住房，以及对两种收入的日益增长的需求，现在是更大的考虑因素。
When we reach a fertility rate of 1.3, as seems inevitable, New Zealand will join the ranks of the “lowest low-fertility” countries.
当我们的生育率达到1.3时，新西兰将不可避免地加入“极低生育率”国家的行列。
Aside from the actual fertility rate, there is also an absolute decline in births. In March 2024, there were 56,277 live births in New Zealand, compared with 58,707 a year earlier (2430 fewer births).
除了实际生育率外，出生率也绝对下降。2024 年 3 月，新西兰有 56,277 名出生婴儿，而一年前为 58,707 名（减少 2430 名新生儿）。
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That is why the Ministry of Education is forecasting 30,000 fewer children in the education system by 2032.
这就是为什么教育部预测，到 2032 年，接受教育的儿童将减少 30,000 人。
New Zealand is now hovering around 56,000 births within a population of 5.3 million. Fifty years ago, in 1974, there were 59,334 births when the population was three million.
新西兰目前530万人口中的出生人数徘徊在56,000人左右。五十年前的1974年，当人口为300万时，有59,334人出生。
Photo: RNZ / Marika Khabazi
More arriving and many more leaving
更多的人到达，更多的人离开
The number of immigrant arrivals peaked in December 2023 at 244,763, a net gain of 134,445. Both figures significantly exceed the annual average from 2002 to 2019 of 119,000 arrivals and 27,500 net migration gain.
移民人数在 2023 年 12 月达到峰值，为 244,763 人，净增加 134,445 人。这两个数字都大大超过了 2002 年至 2019 年的年平均 119,000 名入境者和 27,500 名净移民增加。
As of March 2024, arrival numbers have dropped back to 239,000, with a net migration gain of 111,100. Both numbers are still very high, but it suggests the coming year will see a further decline.
截至 2024 年 3 月，入境人数已回落至 239,000 人，净移民人数为 111,100 人。这两个数字仍然很高，但这表明来年将进一步下降。
Still, New Zealand’s population grew last year by 2.8 percent, with net migration gain accounting for the bulk of it (2.4 percent). This is a very high annual growth rate compared to most OECD countries.
尽管如此，新西兰去年的人口增长了2.8%，其中净移民增长占了大部分（2.4%）。与大多数经合组织国家相比，这是一个非常高的年增长率。
But the other side of the story is the surge in New Zealanders leaving. In the 12 months to March 2024, 78,200 New Zealand citizens migrated to another country, leaving a net loss of 52,500.
另一方面，离开的新西兰人正在激增中。在截至 2024 年 3 月的 12 个月内，有 78,200 名新西兰公民移民到另一个国家，净损失为 52,500 人。
As Stats NZ notes with a degree of understatement, this exceeds the previous record of 72,400 departures and net loss of 44,400 citizens in the year to February 2012.
正如新西兰统计局轻描淡写地指出的那样，这超过了截至2012年2月的一年中72,400人离境和44,400名公民净损失的记录。
It is not unusual to see a net departure of New Zealand citizens. There was an average annual net migration loss of 26,800 from 2002 to 2013, when numbers were at the previous high. But the causes of the latest outflow deserve further analysis.
新西兰公民净出境的情况并不少见。从2002年到2013年，平均每年净移民人数为26,800人，当时这一数字处于以前的高位。但最近人才外流的原因值得进一步分析。
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Māori near the million mark
接近百万大关的毛利人
Stats NZ confirmed the Māori ethnic population (those who self-identify as Māori) reached 904,100 in December 2023. The annual population increase for Māori was 1.5 percent. If this trajectory continues, Māori will number one million sometime in the early 2030s.
新西兰统计局证实，2023 年 12 月，毛利族人口（自认为是毛利人的人）达到 904,100 人。毛利人的年人口增长率为1.5%。如果这种轨迹继续下去，毛利人将在2030年代初的某个时候达到100万。
Māori fertility differs significantly to that of Pākehā. Māori have a much lower median age overall, Māori women have children at a younger age, with more children per mother born on average.
毛利人的生育率与帕克哈人（Pākehā – 指白人）的生育率有很大不同。毛利人的总体年龄中位数要低得多，毛利妇女生育孩子年龄较小，平均每个母亲生育的孩子更多。
Stats NZ anticipates that by 2043, 21 percent of all New Zealanders will identify as Māori, up from 17 percent at the moment. For children, however, 33 percent will identify as Māori.
新西兰统计局预计，到2043年，21%的新西兰人将自认为毛利人，高于目前的17%。然而，对于儿童来说，33%的人会自认为是毛利人。
The so-called “kohanga reo generations” will be more immersed in tikanga and te reo, with major implications for New Zealand society and the political landscape.
所谓的幼儿世代将更易融入于文化和语言之中，这对新西兰社会和政治格局将产生重大影响。
Asian communities are growing and changing
亚裔社区正在成长和变化
The high levels of inward immigration will add to those identifying as one of the many Asian communities in Aotearoa New Zealand. (And we really do need to find another way of referring to these communities other than with the catch-all “Asian”).
高数量的入境移民将增加新西兰众多亚裔社区的人口。（我们确实需要找到另一种方式来指称这些社区，而不是统称为“亚洲人”）。
Pre-Covid, the largest number of arrivals came from China. In the past two years, India has become the largest source country, followed by the Philippines and then China. To March 2024, there were 49,800 arrivals from India compared to 26,800 from China.
在新冠疫情之前，来自中国的入境人数最多。在过去两年中，印度已成为最大的来源国，其次是菲律宾，然后是中国。截至 2024 年 3 月，有 49,800 人来自印度，而来自中国的 26,800 人。
These immigration trends mean the next two decades (to 2043) will see the number of New Zealanders who identify with one of the Asian communities grow to 24 percent of the total population (25 percent for children).
这些移民趋势意味着未来二十年（到2043年）认同亚裔社区的新西兰人数量将增长到总人口的24%（其中儿童占25%）。
For the moment, three-quarters of Asian community members are immigrants (born in another country), and quite a lot is known about them from past research. But it will be interesting to see how those born and educated in New Zealand forge their path, and what they will contribute.
目前，四分之三的亚裔社区成员是移民（出生在另一个国家），从过去的研究中对他们了解很多。但是，看看那些在新西兰出生和接受教育的人如何开辟自己的道路，以及他们将做出什么贡献，这将是一件有趣的事情。
The census tends to briefly focus attention on New Zealand’s changing population. But we need to spend more time putting the pieces together to understand how much the country is really changing. That includes looking at the trends between censuses – a lot can happen in five years, after all.
人口普查倾向于短暂地将注意力集中在新西兰不断变化的人口上。但我们需要花更多的时间把这些资料集中一起，以了解这个国家到底发生了多大的变化。这包括查看人口普查之间的趋势——毕竟，五年内可能会发生很多事情。
*Paul Spoonley is a distinguished professor in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at Massey University
*保罗·斯普利（Paul Spoonley）是梅西大学人文与社会科学学院的杰出教授
– This story was originally published by The Conversation.
– 本文最初发表于The Conversation。
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