题图 Photo: 123RF 照片：123RF
Inflation has slowed to its lowest level in more than two years, but domestic price pressures remain stubborn and will slow any move to cut interest rates.
通胀已放缓至两年多来的最低水平，但国内物价压力依然顽固，将减缓任何降息步伐。
Stats NZ figures showed consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in the three months ended December, taking the annual inflation rate down to 4.7 percent from 5.6 percent, the lowest since June 2021.
新西兰统计局的数据显示，在截至12月的三个月中，消费者价格上涨了0.5%，使年通胀率从5.6%降至4.7%，为2021年6月以来的最低水平。
The figures were exactly in line with economists’ expectations, but below the Reserve Bank’s November forecast of a 0.8 percent rise.
这些数字完全符合经济学家的预期，但低于储备银行11月预测的0.8%的增长。
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Higher costs of building and running a house, such as rates, rent and insurance, drove the quarterly increase offsetting cheaper food and fuel.
建造和运营房屋的成本上升，如地税、租金和保险，推动了季度增长，抵消了更便宜的食品和燃料。
“The price of housing increased over 2023. Rent is 4.5 percent more expensive than at the end of last year,” Stats NZ senior manager of prices Nicola Growden said.
“房价比 2023 年上涨。租金比去年年底贵了4.5%，“新西兰统计局价格高级经理Nicola Growden说。
“Prices for about one-third of all items in the CPI basket decreased in the December 2023 quarter, the most in over three years.”
“2023 年 12 月季度，CPI 篮子中约三分之一商品的价格下降，为三年多来最大。”
However, the numbers showed that domestic factors – so-called non-tradables – are now the dominant driver of inflation, rising 1.1 percent for the quarter and 5.9 percent for the year.
然而，数据显示，国内因素 – 所谓的非贸易 – 现在是通货膨胀的主要驱动力，本季度上涨1.1%，全年上涨5.9%。
Core inflation measures, which eliminate more volatile components, were at 5 percent.
剔除波动性较大的因素的核心通胀指标为5%。
Economists predicted a 0.5 percent increase in prices for the quarter, and 4.7 percent for the year.
经济学家预测本季度价格上涨0.5%，全年上涨4.7%。
In November the RBNZ expressed its impatience at the slowness in inflation’s decline and even threatened a further rate rise if progress was not made.
去年11月，新西兰联储对通胀下降缓慢表示不耐烦，甚至威胁说，如果不取得进展，将进一步加息。
Financial markets are putting an 80 percent chance of an OCR cut to 5.25 percent in May, and definitely two cuts by the end of the year.
金融市场认为，5月份OCR下调的可能性为80%，降至5.25%，到今年年底肯定会下调两次。
Recent numbers have shown the economy slowing markedly with weaker activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, and soft consumer spending, with some economists already suggesting the economy is in recession which would back the case for lower rates.
最近的数据显示，随着制造业和服务业活动疲软，以及消费者支出疲软，经济明显放缓，一些经济学家已经暗示经济正处于衰退之中，这将支持降低利率的理由。
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Delightfully boring 令人愉快的无聊
Kiwibank’s chief economist Jarrod Kerr called the numbers “delightfully boring”, and said the slowing would help cement lower inflation expectations.
Kiwibank首席经济学家Jarrod Kerr称这些数字“令人愉快的无聊”，并表示放缓将有助于巩固较低的通胀预期。
“Psychologically, we now have 4 percent in the back of our minds when it comes to setting prices. That’s a big shift from 7 percent. Today’s move … should reinforce the downward momentum in expectations.”
“从心理上讲，在设定价格时我们脑海中现在是4%。这与7%相比有很大的转变。今天的数据……应该会加强预期的下行势头。
He said there were hurdles ahead such as rising shipping costs because of the Red Sea attacks, and the impact of record migration gains on rents.
他说，未来存在一些障碍，例如红海袭击事件导致的运输成本上升，以及创纪录的移民增长对租金的影响。
“We’re on track for inflation hitting the top end of the RBNZ’s target 1-3 percent target band by the second half of this year. Which means rate cuts are not too far away.”
“我们有望在今年下半年达到新西兰储备银行目标区间1-3%的上限。这意味着降息不会太遥远。
Meanwhile, Council of Trade Unions economist Craig Renney said the numbers showed no significant impact of government spending on inflation, which should reshape the new government’s approach.
与此同时，工会理事会经济学家克雷格·雷尼（Craig Renney）表示，这些数字显示政府支出对通货膨胀没有重大影响，这应该会重塑新政府的做法。
“Promises to reduce current inflation by cutting public spending should be treated with a high degree of caution. Instead those cuts will simply hurt those who use those services, with little or negative economic benefit overall,” Renney said.
“通过削减公共支出来降低当前通货膨胀的承诺应该高度谨慎地对待。相反，这些削减只会伤害那些使用这些服务的人，总体上几乎没有或负的经济效益，“雷尼说。
来源：RNZ
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