Mark Lister: What’s a borrower to do if their mortgage is coming up for renewal?
意见
OPINION
是否浮动、固定以及持续多久是借款人经常问的问题。
Whether to float, fix and for how long is a common question for borrowers to ask.
在利率大幅上升、家庭预算大幅紧缩的情况下，这些决定在今天的影响更大。
With interest rates much higher and household budgets considerably tighter, there’s more riding on these decisions today.
与大多数金钱问题一样，答案取决于你的情况。
As with most money matters, the answer depends on your situation.
然而，让我来告诉你我对此的看法。
However, let me give you my take on this.
我认为，我们的官方现金利率(OCR)很有可能处于本轮周期的峰值。
I think there’s a good chance our Official Cash Rate (OCR) could be at its peak for this cycle.
周二公布的通胀数据是两年来最低的，联储行长奥尔(Adrian Orr)和他的同事将受到鼓舞。
Governor Adrian Orr and his colleagues will be encouraged by Tuesday’s inflation figures, which were the lowest in two years.
顽固的国内价格压力将使其保持警惕，但央行目前处于观望状态。
Stubborn domestic pricing pressures will keep it on alert, but the Reserve Bank is in a holding pattern for now.
很难在11月的会议上看到任何OCR变化，这是今年的最后一次会议。
It’s hard to see any OCR change coming at the November meeting, which is the last one for the year.
除此之外，下一个货币政策决定将在2月份做出。
Beyond that, the next monetary policy decision comes in February.
希望在四个月的时间里，通货膨胀会进一步下滑，劳动力市场也会略有缓和。
Hopefully, in four months’ time, inflation will have slipped a little further and the labour market will eased slightly too.
新政府也将形成，我们将更清楚地了解政策变化将如何影响前景。
The new government will have also taken shape and we’ll have a clearer picture of how policy changes might impact the outlook.
一些经济学家指出，国家党的减税提案可能会给通胀带来上行压力，从而进一步推高利率。
Some economists have noted that National Party tax relief proposals could put upward pressure on inflation, thereby pushing interest rates even higher.
这是有可能的，但如果新西兰优先党参与其中，我不确定它是否会支持减税。
That’s possible, but if NZ First is in the mix, I’m not sure it will support tax cuts.
我认为澳大利亚储备银行按手不动的另一个原因是，它仍然从之前的OCR上调中获得了很好的收益。
Another reason I see the Reserve Bank sitting on its hands is that it’s still getting very good bang for buck out of its previous OCR increases.
我们大多数人选择固定利率，这意味着我们不会感受到贷款利率上升带来的影响。
Most of us opt for fixed rates, which means we don’t feel the effect of higher rates under our loans come up for renewal.
这就是为什么他们说货币政策的运作存在滞后性，因为利率的变化需要时间才能在经济中发挥作用。
That’s why they say monetary policy operates with a lag, because it takes time for changes in interest rates to work their way through the economy.
利率变动得越快，当现实迎头赶上时，影响就越大。
The faster the move in interest rates, the bigger impact when reality catches up.
目前，固定抵押贷款利率在7%左右。
Right now, fixed mortgage rates are around 7 per cent, give or take.
然而，借款人支付的平均固定利率仅为5.2%，因为我们中的许多人仍在享受一段时间前签署的利率。
However, the average fixed rate borrowers are paying is only 5.2 per cent, because many of us are still enjoying rates that we signed up for some time back.
随着这些因素逐渐消失，我们将转向当前更高的利率，尽管澳大利亚储备银行自5月以来一直处于观望状态，但我们的口袋仍将受到打击。
As those roll off, we’ll move on to the higher current rates and keep getting hit in the pocket even though the Reserve Bank has been on the sidelines since May.
如果他们的抵押贷款即将到期，借款人该怎么办?
What’s a borrower to do if their mortgage is coming up for renewal?
浮动利率最高，约为8.5%，但除非你想要最大限度的灵活性，否则几乎没有动力支付这种溢价。
Floating rates are the highest at around 8.5 per cent, but unless you want maximum flexibility there’s little incentive to pay this premium.
纵观固定利率选择，期限较短的价格最高，6个月或12个月的期限略高于7%。
Looking across the fixed rate options, the shorter timeframes are most expensive with six or 12-month terms at just above 7 per cent.
三年或五年之后，固定利率下降到6%左右。
As you go out to three or five years, fixed rates come down into the mid-sixes.
这就是你每月账单尽可能低的地方，但这种方法有风险。
That’s where you’d head to keep your monthly bill as low as possible, but there’s a risk with this approach.
如果通货膨胀继续降温，经济放缓(因为人们继续使用当前的利率)，OCR最终达到(或接近)峰值，那么引爆点可能会在明年出现。
If inflation continues to cool, the economy slows (as people roll on to current rates) and the OCR turns out to be at (or close to) its peak, the tipping point could be upon us next year.
那些选择更长期限的人将在不久的将来节省一些钱，但他们可能会发现自己在利率下降的背景下陷入更高的利率。
Those who opt for a lengthier term will save some money in the immediate future, but they might find themselves stuck on higher rates against a backdrop of declining interest rates.
如果你相信事情会这样发展下去，那么最好选择一个短期利率，并保留你的选择权。
If you believe that’s how things could play out, it might be preferable to select a shorter-term rate and keep your options open.
你现在要付更多的钱，但如果你下次续借贷款的时候，你可以利用更低的利率。
You’ll pay slightly more right now, but you’ll be able to take advantage of lower rates if that’s where things are at when it’s time to renew your loan the next time around.
有时候，家庭预算的确定性比这一切都重要，所以如果长期的还款清晰能让你晚上睡得安稳，也许这就是你的答案。
Sometimes the need for certainty around your household budget trumps all of this, so if long-term repayment clarity will help you sleep at night, maybe there’s your answer.
如果有疑问，请寻求一些建议。
If in doubt, get some advice.
只要记住，金融市场瞬息万变，所以你今天从银行、政策制定者和经济学家那里听到的东西，到2024年的劳工节时，就不一定那么有意义了。
Just remember things can change quickly in financial markets, so what you’re hearing today from banks, policymakers and economists won’t necessarily be as relevant by Labour Day of 2024.
Mark Lister是craig investment Partners的投资总监。
Mark Lister is investment director at Craigs Investment Partners.
本文中的信息仅供参考，旨在提供一般性信息，不考虑您的财务状况、目标、目标或风险承受能力。
The information in this article is provided for information only, is intended to be general in nature, and does not take into account your financial situation, objectives, goals, or risk tolerance.
在做出任何投资决定之前，克雷格投资合伙公司建议您联系投资顾问。
Before making any investment decision Craigs Investment Partners recommends you contact an investment adviser.
来源： NZ Herald
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